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Summer is Coming to a Close

Posted by GCAR on September 24, 2018
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Pending sales showed no change from August 2017 after 2 months of steady increases. This may be an indication that summer selling season is coming to an end.

Closed sales are back on a downward trend after a slight increase in July. Even though closed sales decreased 3.3 percent from August 2017 to 1,271 for the month, we are still at nearly the same rate year to date as we were in 2017.

Prices were up compared to last year at this time. The median sales price increased 4.5 percent to $224,722. There could be some changes to the long-standing trend of price increases as we leave the summer of 2018 behind.

Inventory levels continue to decrease. They were down 13.8 percent from August 2017 to 5,307 units. In terms of total homes for sale, achieving market balance has proven difficult for many years now. But the chase is on as more sellers and developers are jumping into the market. New construction is showing a 6 percent increase year to date.

Unsold inventory is at a 5.2-month supply. This is a 16.1 percent decrease from last year. Supply has been trending downward for several months. If there are to be any changes in current market dynamics, any change here will likely be one of the indicators of a market shift.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says “While inventory continues to show modest year over year gains, it is still far from a healthy level and new home construction is not keeping up to satisfy demand. Homes continue to fly off the shelves with a majority of properties selling within a month, indicating that more inventory – especially moderately priced, entry-level homes – would propel sales.”

While some are starting to look for recessionary signs like fewer sales, dropping prices and even foreclosures, others are taking a more cautious and research-based approached to their predictions.

The fact remains that the trends do not yet support a dramatic shift away from what has been experienced over the last several years.