President’s Message – Nov/Dec
It was great to see so many of you at the GCAR Trade Show held this year at the Desmond. There was a strong showing from our affiliate members, our sponsors, and all of the exhibitors who helped make the show a success. Our keynote speaker, Ifoma Pierre gave a lively and interactive presentation on “Adapt or Evaporate,” a highly relevant take on current major changes in the real estate profession and how best to survive and thrive, based on his own personal experiences and success.
I was glad to see many GCAR members at NYSAR’s fall business meetings. We were fortunate this year in having the event right in Saratoga Springs, a short drive for most of us. The Legislative Policy Forum’s speaker, Steve Greenberg, provided his wry and witty take on the country’s current political situation, and what it portends for the real estate market. Mike Kelly, NYSAR’s Director of Government Affairs gave a well-informed and insightful update on some of the legislation being proposed in our state that would have a direct effect on the real estate business. For any of you who have not attended a NYSAR meeting, I would encourage you to plan to go. Attendance is free of charge and it gives you a broader perspective on our profession, what the current trends and issues are, as well as important challenges. The knowledge that you gain there can help you to achieve your potential. There are also fun events, like the RPAC karaoke night.
Some not-so-good news for real estate is the data coming from the National Home Builders Association. The NAHB Housing Market Index, which is based on a monthly survey of its members, fell for the 10th straight month in a row to 38 in October. Except for the COVID period, this is the lowest number since August of 2012. New mortgage applications are down 38% versus a year ago and refinancing applications are down 86% from last year, not surprising, given the steadily rising 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which is now at 7%.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, inflation has not slowed, and most economists expect the Fed to raise rates again in November by 0.75%, so it seems things may not be getting easier for buyers in 2023.
After the 2008-09 housing crash, it took until 2020 before home prices fully recovered (adjusted for inflation). If we do enter a recession, which seems increasingly likely, it may again take a while for recovery.
My experience has shown me that REALTORS® are resilient, not unused to the roller coaster ride the real estate market metes out. The future for our profession will be challenging, but it will never be boring!
I have appreciated the opportunity to serve this association and the members during 2022 and would like to thank the entire GCAR staff and the board of directors, as well as the working committee members who have made my tenure as your president an enjoyable and valuable experience.
Here’s wishing you all a successful and rewarding 2023!
